Prediction market goes live today!
Another big day for the Mars Economy project! Today we launched our Prediction Market, and the first set of predictions is now open to the public.
In the goal of bringing life to Mars it became very clear from the inception of our project that this should be initiated with a prediction market. We want to educate the public on what is necessary in this next step of evolution and incentivize them to become a part of colonization. The Mars Prediction market both sources and verifies colonization news, and rewards predictors in the process as they join the Mars Economy community.
Get started now!
- Open Prediction Market app in your browser (mobile coming soon!)
- Connect Wallet
- Place your bets!
The Mars Economy project consists of a set of project-specific markets. The most promising projects elected by the Mars Economy decentralized governance will be allowed to open specific staking on the platform.
For each of these projects, a separate prediction market will be created. The markets use 3-level grouping:
- Level 1 — Sections. Examples: Crossing the frontier; Discover the red planet; A new home.
- Level 2 — Milestones. Examples: First Orbital Flight of spacecraft fit for Mars logistics; First crew headed to Mars.
- Level 3 — Predictions. Examples: Achieved by XX.XX. 20XX (yes / no)? Private Company or NASA SLS? Which Agency or Nation will be the first? What is the crew size?
All prediction markets operate identically based on the same smart contracts code. The basic attributes of all prediction markets are:
- A complete set of possible outcomes
- A settlement date
- Time and pool share limits
Decisions about the winning outcomes are taken at the settlement date by a group of oracles or by governance under control of a separate Settlement smart contract.
Shares of outcome:
Every prediction market has shares of outcome tokens that can be either bought directly from the contracts or traded on an external market. Every share corresponds to one of the possible outcomes for a given market. At the date of settlement, the shares for the true outcome will be accepted by the smart contract at the settlement price (see details below), alternative shares will not be accepted and therefore will have no value.
The initial shares distribution will be performed by the smart contract. The opening price of one share is 1 BUSD, but it is not constant and grows over time (about 4% per month). So when you stake early, your potential reward also grows compared to those who stake later.
All the collected amount will be locked in the smart contract until the prediction date. When a winning outcome is settled, the collected amount will be distributed among the winning shareholders proportionally by returning their shares to the smart contract and burning them. To make the minimum winning amount more predictable, the initial shares distribution will have the following limits (defined for each prediction market):
- Time limit — the initial shares distribution must be finished at some date before the predicted event. This is to prevent buying shares when some outcome becomes obvious earlier than the prediction date.
- Pool share limit — since some predefined date, there may be a limit on the maximum share of one outcome in the pool, e.g. 80%. When this limit is reached, the distribution for this specific outcome will be suspended until a sufficient amount of other shares of outcomes will be purchased.
Settlement price of the shares:
The settlement price of the winning shares will include the initial amount of BUSD collected minus the amount of fees paid to oracles, minus the protocol fee:
P = (total_BUSD_collected — total_fees_paid — protocol_fee) / number_of_shares_won)
“Blockchain-based prediction markets may be the one force strong enough to counterbalance the spread of incorrect information on social media. They give people a financial incentive to seek the truth and then protect them with the twin shields of pseudonymity and decentralization.” ~ Balaji S. Srinivasan, Former CTO of Coinbase
We couldn’t be more excited for the future of the project and to launch the space exploration-focused prediction market for the community. It’s truly inspiring to see the energy from space enthusiasts around the globe equally as excited about this project and rallying around the Mars Economy’s mission.
Let’s bring life to Mars! When do you think the first human will land on the Red Planet? Predict here now!
Any and all feedback is greatly appreciated as this will help us provide the best experience possible for the Mars Economy community members and the public at large. Chat with the community and dev team in the Telegram chat or follow our social media channels for updates about the project.